The conventional wisdom at this moment is that Bush is starting to sink in the polls, even if Kerry is not yet gaining ground (because he is unknown, punditry says, but perhaps he is known quite well enough). The amazing thing is that with all the negative press of the past 2 weeks that Bush has any polls left. His 42% or whatever must represent an absolute base which is sticking with him no matter what.
The REAL political news of the last couple weeks is a poll taken in California by
Survey USA : which shows Bush trailing JFK in California by a whopping 1 point. Unbelievable? Maybe, but very scary for Kerry. No electoral math for the Democrats comes close to 270 without California. Democrats win there or they lose in a big way.
So why doesn't Bush move now to strengthen himself in California? They have a large Spanish-speaking population. Bush speaks Spanish, and can probably express himself as well in that language as he can in English. On Monday May 17 the first flood of gay weddings in Massachusetts will be in the news and this is not a popular theme among Spanish-speaking voters. Ahhhh-nold is quite popular there and can help Bush with joint appearances, and Bush can help the Governator.
Could Bush take California? Maybe. Could he make Kerry spend time and money defending himself there? Definitely yes, and that is exactly the point. Kerry dow not want to spend time and money in California. It is an expensive media market, but the POTUS get make the news for free by appearing. If Kerry has to spend his campaign's time and money defending himself in California he cannot advance his cause in the swing states. So it just makes sense for Bush to strike there now and start working the state. He will force Kerry's hand. Why not do this?
Here is the Survey USA data:
2004 SurveyUSA Election Polls
Sorted: Newest Data on TopLast Updated:5/7/04
President, CA 5/7/2004
Kerry (D)46%
Bush (R)45%
Other/Undecided9%
Data Collected: 5/4/04 - 5/6/04
Geography: State of California
Sample Population: 635 Likely Voters
Margin of Error: 4.0%
Client:
KABC-TV Los Angeles
KPIX-TV San Francisco
KXTV-TV Sacramento
KGTV-TV San Diego"